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The New Playing Field: How AOL Time-Warner might have effected Microsoft, and the battle with the Department of Justice.
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Background
For what seems like eons in `Internet Time', Microsoft has been in a battle with the US Department of Justice over what the DOJ alleges is a monopoly. The DOJ wants to break Microsoft up into two pieces: one to handle the Windows family of operating systems, another to handle all other software products. There has also been speculation that the restructuring may involve several spin-offs, to cover Internet Products, software for Hand-held devices, as well as the two big divisions.
However, with the developments of the last week, both the case that the DOJ has, and the necessity for them to go forward with it are in question. Let's consider why:
AOL Time-Warner Inc.
With the $USD160,000,000,000.00 (that's one hundred sixty billion US dollars.) merger of America Online Inc. and Time-Warner Inc. last week, the playing field has changed dramatically. The America Online-Time Warner marriage means that the AOL, Time, Netscape, Warner Brothers, People, CNN, HBO, TNT, TBS, CompuServe, Sports Illustrated, ICQ, AOL Instant Messenger, AOL MovieFone, Winamp, Fortune, and Entertainment Weekly brands are all leveraged by the same company. AOL Time-Warner now has a powerful reach into markets that no other single company can even come close to touching-not even Microsoft.
Of Monopolies, Mergers and Motivation
Bill Gates has stepped down from the CEO position, yes, but is this a strategic move, or a `personal decision' as he has said? Consider: even though they have a monopoly now, the use and popularity of alternative operating systems like Linux is growing rapidly, meaning that the monopoly control is beginning to weaken.
With every new personal computer that installs an OS other than Windows, the case that the DOJ has gets weaker. Even with a monopoly, operating under the DOJ magnifying glass means that Microsoft cannot eliminate OS competition, even if they wanted to. So, there is only one way for their market share to go in the future: down.
Which is likely the motivation for Bill Gates' to change jobs. Consider: he does not want his company broken up into little bits by the Government, and to prevent this has been fighting a long battle with the DOJ. But, with the AOL-Time merger, and the erosion of the monopoly, the best way for Microsoft to avoid a forced restructuring is to delay. The longer Microsoft can drag on the DOJ inquiry with appeal after appeal after appeal, the DOJ case will hold less and less relevance, and eventually be dropped.
The job description Bill Gates has always had has been to direct the future of the company. He has been the source of all Microsoft strategy, the voice that gives direction. Regardless of what happened last week, the fight with the DOJ will go on and on for a long time to come. As CEO, Bill would be spending a large portion of his time dealing with lawyers and politicians, and not directing his company. So, by moving to `Chief Software Architect', he is again in full time control of where the company will be in five years from now. As we have indicated above, the focus of Microsoft Corp in the future will not be the Operating System market. So, what is Bill thinking? In the next five years, look for Microsoft to move off of your computer, and into your home:
- Web TV: The number of homes in the United States with Televisions by far out weighs the number with computers hooked to the Internet. Web TV is potentially a far-reaching and very powerful medium.
- Internet Appliances: A fridge that orders groceries for you, an air conditioner you turn on from your office before leaving for the day.
Discuss
Log onto the PCstats Discussion Boards to give your thoughts on this issue. Do you think Bill Gates' stepping down was related to the creation of AOL Time-Warner? What do you think of the Big Merger in general-who will benefit?
Contents of Article: PCSTATS
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